I am putting the finishing touches on a commentary that highlights the some of the similarities between the 1995/98 period and the current environment. The focus is on Japan and EM - and needless to say, it will not paint a pretty picture for EM. I hope to send that out shortly. In the meantime, […]

So the verdict is in. Gold is settling down 8 to 10 percent from its pre-crash levels and the world feels mighty fine. Spoos are a few ticks from record highs and the Nikkei is Motte Isuma!! So much for the endless stream of comments suggesting that because of a Gold crash all leverage will […]

As one might have expected, I received quite a number of responses to Monday's commentary. While there were a few that expressed solidarity with the view that this gold sell-off is a POSITIVE sign for the GLOBAL reflation/recovery trade, most of the replies were hostile. I suspect it comes down to sample selection bias - […]

What a wild week! While it felt great to be back in the risk pool just before last Wednesday's liftathon in spoos; the late week Yen strength, gold meltdown, JGB long-end volatility and Cypriot bailout shenanigans provided plenty to ponder. Of course the long term reflation trade remains fully intact - that should ALWAYS go […]

There is no question that the news from Japan has been extremely important for global markets. And to be sure, we have been arguing since November 2012 that significant changes to BoJ policy would be one of the primary drivers of ALL global asset prices in 2013. Some of my favorite commentaries over the past […]

For the last couple weeks we have stepped away from our multi-year risk-on views. The news in Cyprus was enough to temporarily change the game. And while many folks have questioned our HIGHLY unusual bout of nervousness over such a small country, I suspect that once we see the long term fallout from this crisis […]

The BoJ has at least 10 different policy levers to operate within the market place - the amount of JGB purchases, the average maturity of JGB purchases, the amount of CP purchases, the amount of non-financial BBB corporate purchases, the amount of JREIT purchases, the amount of equity ETF purchases, the size of the fund […]

The Sunday evening Cypriot bail-in deal shows that the Germans are willing to go to great lengths to secure a political win. And let’s be clear, what was agreed last night was a HUGE win for Merkel. She silenced SPD critics on the issue of bailing out Russian oligarchs. And she looked tough on EMU […]

There were no big surprises in the Fed statement or at Ben's press conference yesterday. The Committee tweaked the growth and inflation forecasts modestly weaker, gave a nod to fiscal policy risks and talked up some of the recent positives in the US data. The market tried to get a rally going, but spoos just […]

What happened to Cyprus on Friday evening was one of the most significant developments in the Eurozone since the Greek election last summer. To tax the bank deposits of savers sends an ominous message to the entire global investment community. All of us should really take a moment to consider what the governments of Europe […]