Interpreting the December FOMC statement is not an easy task. The market is still digesting what an explicit 6.5/2.5 "Evans Rule" really means. Is it bullish? Is it bearish? Is there room to miss? Under what conditions would a miss be tolerated? What are the next...
The most interesting story on the global macro horizon has nothing to do with the fiscal cliff, US housing markets, Greece, Argentina, Spain or China. This story has been percolating for decades, and an enormous amount of money has been lost by the global macro...
Black Friday is the annual celebration of American consumerism. The morning after we all sit with our families, gain 5 pounds, and watch some meaningless football match involving the Detroit Lions, we march off to the shops. It starts at 4am as stampedes of fleece...
In Quentin Tarantino's first film, True Romance, the final scene is a classic Mexican standoff. The mob on one side, the cops on another side and a smattering of criminals in the middle. Three parties all ready to take the others down and get out alive. Its a...
The market action post Obama's win has been choppy and messy. As the election was settled in the early morning hours of Nov 7th; stocks rallied, the dollar weakened and the long end of the Treasury market sold off. Then came the morning after flush as the words...
In October, after the first presidential debate – equities wobbled, gold fell from grace, the DXY began to rise and the short end of the Treasury market weakened. Once the increased odds of a Romney win were factored into the calculus of asset prices, the math spit...
Two days ago, while many of us on the east coast of the US were hunkered down fighting Sandy, the Bank of Japan quietly disappointed markets - AGAIN! I guess it has been a 20 plus year pattern, so it should come as no surprise. But there has been an unusual level of...
"The lack of money is the root of all evil" - Mark Twain As Ben pumps the system with over 2 billion dollars of freshly minted M0 a day, the markets are quickly starting to take notice. When I strolled by our IG desk yesterday there was panic in people's eyes -...
Back in August, Robert Gordon of Northwestern University published a controversial paper on economic growth - http://faculty-web.at.northwestern.edu/economics/gordon/Is%20US%20Economic%20Growth%20Over.pdf . For anyone looking to temper their optimistic views on the...
If you have not seen "Breaking Bad" you are missing out. It is one of these highly aggressive shock and awe mini-series on cable TV. It’s an addictive cocktail of Quentin Tarantino violence and David Lynch surrealism. In the show a geeky high school chemistry teacher...
If you have not seen "Breaking Bad" you are missing out. It is one of these highly aggressive shock and awe mini-series on cable TV. It’s an addictive cocktail of Quentin Tarantino violence and David Lynch surrealism. In the show a geeky high school chemistry teacher in New Mexico named Walter is diagnosed with lung […]
