Last Thursday, as part of our Global Macro Speaker Series, I hosted a discussion in NYC with Ken Rogoff and Alan Meltzer. As many readers know, Ken has been an outspoken advocate of QE policies. He has also been in favor of temporarily pursuing higher inflation levels than the stated 2 percent FOMC target. Ken […]

Employment highlights – * The participation rate went back up 0.2 and the unemployment rate still held steady at 8.3%. * There were some decent revisions to January payrolls (+28k) and December payrolls (+14k) * The broader U6 rate fell from 15.1% to 14.9% * The last three months private payrolls have been 233k, 285k […]

(BN) *ISDA SAYS CREDIT EVENT HAS OCCURRED WITH RESPECT TO GREECE (BN) *GREECE CREDIT SWAPS AUCTION TO BE `EXPEDITED,' ISDA SAYS "I've always said publicly that default is out of the question," – Trichet "There will be no default." – Rehn “People fail to see the costs to both Greece and the eurozone of a […]

Since the beginning of the crisis, the Fed has wanted to issue its own brand of bills. Rather than generating huge quantities of excess reserves, and be accused of reckless “printing”, the Fed would have preferred to drain the cash from long end QE purchases through bill issuance. Of course, as the Fed went for […]

Those who come to the party late, and buy the local highs in risky assets, will have an expensive admission ticket! But those who diligently follow the orders of the global central banks, keep their party hats securely fastened and stay at the party even when it is tempting to run for the exit doors […]

Since the LTRO announcement EURUSD is down almost 3 figures. The markets are correctly adjusting to a fundamental change in European monetary policy. Whether the hardliners want to admit it or not, the balance sheet expanders have finally taken control of the EUR purse strings. Draghi looks a lot like the other MIT PhD and […]

The big events for the week are done. Bernanke spoke and Draghi opened the spigot. The LTRO was by far the more important event of the week, and the naysayers on its effectiveness were quietly taken out back to the woodshed for one final and gruesome pummeling. Open the attachment or take a look at […]

Next Tuesday evening in Chicago we are going to host another Global Macro Speaker Series event. This time I will be moderating a discussion with Sergio Rebelo and Marty Eichenbaum. Both are professors from the Kellogg school at Northwestern University. We have a few spots left, so please reach out to your JEF salesperson if […]

As spoos move within inches of the April 2010 highs, and are now less than 14% off their all-time highs, I thought it would be a useful time to provide some retrospective thoughts on just how much the US is NOT like Japan. The Federal Reserve’s policy of financial repression is working. They have sucked […]

By now most of us are sick of reading (and writing) about Greece. Yes it’s a big deal. Yes there will be market dislocations. Yes there will be contagion effects to other sovereigns. And yes, the Greeks will never pay back what was lent to them. Timing remains uncertain, but the Greek endgame is etched […]