The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened. On the negative side – · Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air...
It is always nice to come in, turn on the screens and see the spoo up a percent, 2yr Greece/Germany spreads 500 wider and 10yr France/Germany 2 wider. It’s that sweet sweet music of Fed reflation and European detonation! Yesterday, Ben gave a most transparent...
The language on growth is a little more upbeat - "economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter" and "household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months". This statement from the last meeting however stayed intact - "Moreover,...
The last time we had a referendum in Greece was 1974 when the monarchy was abolished and Third Hellenic Republic was established. Since 1829 there have only been 8 referendums in Greece, which ironically enough is very close to the number of defaults since that time...
Seeing Greek bond investors take a 50 percent haircut, the 10yr BTP/Bund spread back to the August wides above 400 and the 10yr OAT/Bund spread north of 100 at the same time spoos have rallied 20 percent and CDX HY has fallen nearly 300bps over the past month is about...
After sifting through the EU document, there is reason to be impressed - 17 George Bushes, 17 Nancy Pelosis and 17 Hank Paulsons sat down at dinner and achieved some important decisions on loss sharing. There were 4 basic things agreed - 1. A "coerced" loss for...
Before diving into the pressing issues of the moment, let's get some baseline macro perspective on current price action. US equities (ex the financially repressed) are trading about as well as anyone could expect. US corporate credit is recovering nicely from the...
It’s been quite a trip through Europe this past week. Our central bank and SWF conference in Rome provided some very lively debate, as did the many client meetings in Geneva and London. I have a lot more to write about regarding Europe, but I will save that for Monday...
So here we sit with the DJIA and Nasdaq unchanged on the year, while the spoo is spitting distance from the green zone. At the same time core European bond markets are finding very little support, with some fairly aggressive moves in France and Belgium most recently....
"I know what you're thinking, 'Did he fire six shots or only five?'. Well to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, that would blow your head clean off, you've...
"I know what you're thinking, 'Did he fire six shots or only five?'. Well to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, that would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask […]
