If you want to read one of the most misguided pieces of research on the euro crisis look no further than here - http://www.piie.com/realtime/?p=2504. After reading this you will understand the dark and disturbed German disease that my good friend, and esteemed global...
As only Mick Jagger could sing it - Angie, when will those clouds all disappear. Angie, where will it lead from here. With no loving in our souls and no money in our coats. You can't say were satisfied. But Angie, you can't say we never tried. All the dreams we hold...
Times they have to be pretty bad if the economists are called in to run a country! Papademos is now the Greek prime minister and it appears that Monti will get the tap in Italy. We will have two PhD economists, from MIT and Yale, ready to lead the battle charge...
The news flow from last week was so voluminous it was nearly impossible to process. For good measure I want to start today’s commentary with a simple recap of what happened. On the negative side – · Greece called a referendum and threw bailout plans up in the air...
It is always nice to come in, turn on the screens and see the spoo up a percent, 2yr Greece/Germany spreads 500 wider and 10yr France/Germany 2 wider. It’s that sweet sweet music of Fed reflation and European detonation! Yesterday, Ben gave a most transparent...
The language on growth is a little more upbeat - "economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter" and "household spending has increased at a somewhat faster pace in recent months". This statement from the last meeting however stayed intact - "Moreover,...
The last time we had a referendum in Greece was 1974 when the monarchy was abolished and Third Hellenic Republic was established. Since 1829 there have only been 8 referendums in Greece, which ironically enough is very close to the number of defaults since that time...
Seeing Greek bond investors take a 50 percent haircut, the 10yr BTP/Bund spread back to the August wides above 400 and the 10yr OAT/Bund spread north of 100 at the same time spoos have rallied 20 percent and CDX HY has fallen nearly 300bps over the past month is about...
After sifting through the EU document, there is reason to be impressed - 17 George Bushes, 17 Nancy Pelosis and 17 Hank Paulsons sat down at dinner and achieved some important decisions on loss sharing. There were 4 basic things agreed - 1. A "coerced" loss for...
Before diving into the pressing issues of the moment, let's get some baseline macro perspective on current price action. US equities (ex the financially repressed) are trading about as well as anyone could expect. US corporate credit is recovering nicely from the...
Before diving into the pressing issues of the moment, let's get some baseline macro perspective on current price action. US equities (ex the financially repressed) are trading about as well as anyone could expect. US corporate credit is recovering nicely from the summer rout with liquidity about as poor as at time in recent memory. […]
