There is no simple way to handicap how the events in Egypt will affect global capital markets. It seems that one of two distinct paths is on the horizon: A militant uprising that roils energy markets and geopolitics, or a civilized transfer of power that brings in a...
It appears that yesterday in Beverly Hills, America’s favorite TV comedian over committed to a late night party session involving the most traditional of vices. A suitcase full of “punch” was delivered to his door step and the festivities went into overdrive. While...
European spread product is the new gold. Since Angela Merkel’s interview last week, the rumors of a newly empowered EFSF have swirled relentlessly. Apparently, sometime by late March this new structure will solve all European woes and may even cure cancer. The only...
I am no expert on German language gender rules - it could be Das Bund, Der Bund or Die Bund - but given what's going on in Europe I suggest we all use "Die Bund" from now on when referring to "The Bund". It is on its deathbed - RIP!! The "degermanification" of "die...
As we all digest another US payroll employment report, it is important to step back and look at some of the longer term trends that are evolving in US labor markets. First, the drop in the U-rate from 9.8 to 9.4 is significant. However, most all economists and pundits...
A very astute CMO trader once said to me – “Some things never change – somehow I bring 100m of pass thru securities backed by 30 year fixed rate loans into the room and miraculously 45m bullet proof 3 year notes pop out the other side”. Trading the mortgage market has...
The Answer - “The Debacle”. For the last decade, large reserve asset managers have accumulated sizeable positions in “low risk” US Treasury, Agency Mortgage and IG Corporate securities. We have all seen the charts where foreign holdings have gone parabolic since 2000....
The high print for the year in the current coupon 30 year mortgage rate was 4.67 on April 5th. We touched 4.45 yesterday and they are going up at 4.47 as I write. Only two months ago, back on October 8th, we touched a low of 3.20. If one were to have said in October...
I have spent the better part of the last couple weeks traveling throughout the US and Europe seeing clients from nearly all of JEFs' business lines - govvies, abs, emg and equities. By far, the number one topic of discussion has been QE2. And one thing is crystal...
The reality of QE2 has finally set in. Over the past month 10 year Treasury yields are about 50bps higher and the S&P is up about 3%. The US equity market is now up over 10% for the year while annual returns for 10yr US government securities, which had peaked at...
The reality of QE2 has finally set in. Over the past month 10 year Treasury yields are about 50bps higher and the S&P is up about 3%. The US equity market is now up over 10% for the year while annual returns for 10yr US government securities, which had peaked at nearly 14%, are now […]
