For global capital markets, the events in the Middle East (ME) are exciting, transforming and of course worrying. Undemocratic, strong arm leadership is being toppled, which of course should be something the West welcomes and encourages. But with the orderly production of petroleum at risk, the West looks reluctant to embrace a ME that is […]

Kyle’s investor letters are always a joy to read. It is global macro investing at its finest. His latest missive is worth 15 of your valuable minutes this morning - http://www.scribd.com/doc/48881153/Kyle-Bass-Hayman-Investor-Letter-February-2011 He also has a nice set of slides showing the lack of virtually any real world experience by those in charge of the Federal […]

- The piece reads more like an op-ed than a government document. This is surprising and refreshing. - The proposals all seek to reduce the government’s involvement in housing finance market significantly. - The price of a government wrap for MBS will be heading much higher. - The market needs to find a new marginal […]

So Axel Weber, the uber-hawk of the ECB, has thrown in the towel and is headed to the dark side. No doubt the conclave of EU finmins leaked that Axel was not going to get the top job and he promptly stormed off in protest. I always thought that his open criticism of the ECB […]

In early November, a mere 3 months ago, 5 year UST yields were right around 1 percent. There were forecasts of 1.75 percent 10 year USTs in Q1 2011 from some major commercial banks, and others were forecasting 2.5 to 3 trillion in addition Fed LSAPs. In addition, the Survey of Professional Forecasters (the SPF) […]

The market has had its feathers ruffled in recent weeks on some seemingly hawkish ECB statements combined with stronger Euro PMI and inflation data. The 2yr German yield rose from 85bps a few weeks ago to 1.50% just before today’s ECB meeting. Over the same time period EURUSD rallied 8 big figures. Many notable pundits […]

It was only 3 months ago that the unwind of bond market lunacy began. Back in early November 2010 most pundits were still discussing the US lost decade and many were forecasting 1 handles on 10 year yields in 2011. There was a relentless flow of negative discourse from both the usual suspects as we […]

There is no simple way to handicap how the events in Egypt will affect global capital markets. It seems that one of two distinct paths is on the horizon: A militant uprising that roils energy markets and geopolitics, or a civilized transfer of power that brings in a new era of democracy to a historically […]

It appears that yesterday in Beverly Hills, America’s favorite TV comedian over committed to a late night party session involving the most traditional of vices. A suitcase full of “punch” was delivered to his door step and the festivities went into overdrive. While our beloved actor looks to be OK after a 48 hour bender, […]

European spread product is the new gold. Since Angela Merkel’s interview last week, the rumors of a newly empowered EFSF have swirled relentlessly. Apparently, sometime by late March this new structure will solve all European woes and may even cure cancer. The only casualty in European markets from all this hoopla has been the Bund […]