I will be travelling up and down the west coast this week so commentaries will be slightly sporadic. First things first, the new Global Fixed Income Monthly is attached. We have added a few new things to the mix – specifically peripheral European bond forecasts and...
I will start today’s commentary the way I ended yesterday’s – “I see no value in buying these US 30yrs....” I wish I could point to a catalyst for yesterday’s selloff, but I doubt there is any single driver. Certainly I do not see anything fundamental - rather, I see...
I have neglected the US mortgage market recently with all of the insanity coming from Europe. I am going to rectify that today. Granted, there has not been too much too discuss with current coupon mortgage rate spreads to 10yr USTs between 90 and 70 for the last...
The last few days have felt somewhat apathetic in markets. With almost no new information of relevance to chew on, analysts have reached deep into uneventful Bernanke speeches, regurgitated Hoenig comments, fringe data in China and Swiss intervention mechanics to look...
Are things that bad that we needed to take 10s to 3.16 and spoos to 1051 in Asia last night? No!!!! But the news in Europe continues to drive panicky and illiquid trading. The market remains on edge with regards to European bank exposures in Central Europe and PIIGS....
The payroll number missed expectations for private sector jobs buy 140k in May and we had another 15k in missed revisions. So it was a net miss of over 150k jobs and the 10y yield has fallen from 3.33 pre-number to 3.25 post number – 8bps on a 150k miss seems a little...
There are 2 story links below that are worth a quick read this morning. The first is “Blackrock’s Fink Says US Stocks Ready to Rock” and the second “Covered Bond Sales Surge, Transocean Tumbles: Credit Markets”. NSN L3EOYZ1A1I4H NSN L3FLPW0YHQ0X The first article is...
It’s a calm day with not much new news so I’ll keep it short. The EURO still looks sick at just around 122, while equities trade a little better and bonds a little softer. Peripheral Europe is trading very poorly this morning with the 10yr Bund/BTP spread almost at...
The following is an excerpt from a letter dated April 27, 1999 to Antonio Martino, a founding member of Forza Italia, from Milton Friedman http://www.cato.org/pubs/journal/cj28n2/cj28n2-10.pdf “Your views and mine are currently very much the same on the euro. . . ....
First of all it’s nice to be back stateside after a long and fascinating trip to Asia. Given the issues in Korea we skipped our last stop in Seoul, thankfully, and I made it back a day early. I want to spend some time this morning on the issues that came up during our...
First of all it’s nice to be back stateside after a long and fascinating trip to Asia. Given the issues in Korea we skipped our last stop in Seoul, thankfully, and I made it back a day early. I want to spend some time this morning on the issues that came up during our discussions […]
