With 10s at 2.95% we are a mere 90bps from the "end of the world" lows in 2008/09. At that time the entire financial system was broken, global trade had halted, the payment system was on the brink of collapse, growth in emerging Asia was falling at 20%+ rates, the ISM was at 37, we […]

In the last 9 days, 10 year UST yields have fallen 40bps and spoos are down nearly 10%. Both are now at lows for the year. Certainly that was not how I saw Q2 ending, and frankly I remain stumped by the magnitude of the moves. Have the facts in the last 2 weeks changed […]

I’m finally back in the office after a week on the West Coast and a week in Europe. That follows 2 weeks in Asia so I am basically exhausted! For the most part, clients I saw on these trips had a more bearish take on global economic prospects than the one I presented (and I […]

In the last couple months risk asset markets have struggled, Bund and Treasury rates across the curve have moved towards their 2010 lows, and the dollar has broadly rallied against most other currencies. Up until the May rout, the recovery looked to be well on its way with almost all global economic data showing signs […]

When there are significant stresses in world markets, I look to Europe for the causes. It used to be Japan in 1990s, and then the US in the 2000s, but for the 2010s it’s the EU area that owns the honor. In looking at the sources and origins of the May breakdown in risk assets, […]

First order of business, apologies for being a little light on the commentary late last week – I ended up with very little time between meetings in LA, San Fran and Seattle. This week I’m in Old Blighty, but I should have more time behind the screens. I can’t say I feel like I missed […]

This seemed like an appropriate title today for two reasons. First, I’m holed up in LA. Second, EMU countries are starting to feel what it’s like to enter the big bad market jungle on their own for the first time in a decade. The warm and fuzzy blanket that protected all of Europe from many […]

I will be travelling up and down the west coast this week so commentaries will be slightly sporadic. First things first, the new Global Fixed Income Monthly is attached. We have added a few new things to the mix – specifically peripheral European bond forecasts and some additional foreign exchange forecasts. Also, in keeping with […]

I will start today’s commentary the way I ended yesterday’s – “I see no value in buying these US 30yrs....” I wish I could point to a catalyst for yesterday’s selloff, but I doubt there is any single driver. Certainly I do not see anything fundamental - rather, I see a lot of towels that […]

I have neglected the US mortgage market recently with all of the insanity coming from Europe. I am going to rectify that today. Granted, there has not been too much too discuss with current coupon mortgage rate spreads to 10yr USTs between 90 and 70 for the last couple months. Also, the buyout story is […]