There are a number of commentators (including myself) that have compared the European bailout package to the US TARP announcement in October 2008. Some of these commentators have gone on to note that in the months and quarters following the TARP announcement, risk...
The May 6th ECB press conference will likely go down as Trichet’s last stand. There were some amazing quotes from that conference such as Trichet’s categorical denial of the fact that the ECB discussed buying government bonds outright. But most interesting was when...
The European bailout plan announced 10 days ago had all the makings of a success story. Spreads tightened sharply, risk assets rallied and the global banking system came back from the abyss. The only immediate worries were the Euro currency falling too quickly and a...
While the details are still difficult to find, it looks like the mother of all bailouts this evening in Europe. The reports suggest a 946b EU wide bailout package with the IMF and even the British (forcibly) involved. The Fed have reinstated the USD swap lines until...
I think this is a great jobs report, but it still won’t make Washington happy. There were 500k new jobs added but 800k people coming into the labor force – hence the U rate up to 9.9%. The bottom line is that we still have a lot of slack in this economy. There are 8m...
I’m going to start today, like I did yesterday, discussing the long end of the US bond market. Given my never ending obsession with steeper curves and early asset sales, I received a number of hostile phone calls about the recent long end outperformance. First of all...
Why have 30yr US rates dropped 45bps in the last month? The answer I believe is across the pond and not here in the US. The attached chart shows that 30yr BTP yields were LOWER than 30yr UST yields one month ago. As the unraveling in Europe has picked up steam, the...
A few clients have sent this over....we know where Bullard stands so it’s not really news, but interesting on the "reverse taper" notion - this is sort of like our idea that they start with weekly auctions in the 3 to 5 billion area. When we see an interview like this...
The most significant news over the weekend was the Greek bailout package. As was rumored late last week, the Greeks have been offered what amounts to 25% of the TARP funds!! The big guns came out last week and the EUR rallied off the lows of 1.31 up towards 1.335 into...
There is no significant changes other than a modest move in the housing language and some minor changes in Hoenig's dissent...He has added some qualifications to the dissent at the end making it sound more dovish - specifically the statement reading - "while limiting...
There is no significant changes other than a modest move in the housing language and some minor changes in Hoenig's dissent...He has added some qualifications to the dissent at the end making it sound more dovish - specifically the statement reading - "while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly". Back to Milken […]
