I’m going to start today, like I did yesterday, discussing the long end of the US bond market. Given my never ending obsession with steeper curves and early asset sales, I received a number of hostile phone calls about the recent long end outperformance. First of all let’s look at the facts: If we look […]

Why have 30yr US rates dropped 45bps in the last month? The answer I believe is across the pond and not here in the US. The attached chart shows that 30yr BTP yields were LOWER than 30yr UST yields one month ago. As the unraveling in Europe has picked up steam, the ultra long end […]

A few clients have sent this over....we know where Bullard stands so it’s not really news, but interesting on the "reverse taper" notion - this is sort of like our idea that they start with weekly auctions in the 3 to 5 billion area. When we see an interview like this with Ben or Janet […]

The most significant news over the weekend was the Greek bailout package. As was rumored late last week, the Greeks have been offered what amounts to 25% of the TARP funds!! The big guns came out last week and the EUR rallied off the lows of 1.31 up towards 1.335 into Friday’s close on the […]

There is no significant changes other than a modest move in the housing language and some minor changes in Hoenig's dissent...He has added some qualifications to the dissent at the end making it sound more dovish - specifically the statement reading - "while limiting the Committee’s flexibility to begin raising rates modestly". Back to Milken […]

There has been lots of talk about Greece, Portugal, Spain, etc. leaving the EUR, revaluing their currency, getting their fiscal houses in order, and then coming back more competitively to the Eurozone. Rubbish! It’s the Germans that look like the odd country out in Europe. In order to do away with all the insanity in […]

So it’s a pretty exciting opening day at the Milken Global Conference. The early morning panel with Steve Forbes, Ken Griffin, Mark Lasry and Mohamed El-Erian was very entertaining. All panelists saw unemployment at 8% to 9% in 12 months time and equities rallying further. Everyone except El-Erian saw 3 to 4% US growth per […]

1. Fed 2009 consolidated financial statements 2. Separating Derivatives businesses from commercial banking business 3. Poor initial claims data Fed statements – I have spent some time in commentaries recently going through the odd hedging issues on the ML portfolios so I will not rehash here. Instead I want to focus on the MBS portfolio […]

There is so much to discuss surrounding this SEC investigation. First and foremost landmark financial reform is around the corner. The big banks have been lobbying hard to water down any attempt at ending TBTF (too big to fail) and their oligopoly in the OTC derivatives markets. The Obama administration has been warning them explicitly […]

Initial claims was disappointing - 484, after 460 last week is just not a step in the right direction. This data is our best high frequency look at the US labor market, and unfortunatly that look is a bit grim. I guess there is a silver lining in that this data will keep the nutty […]